[Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices dropped slightly on November 27, US extends some tariff exemptions for China

SMM Nickel November 27 News:

Macro and Market News:

(1) The Office of the US Trade Representative announced on November 26 local time that it will extend the tariff exemptions established based on the Section 301 investigation into China's technology transfer and intellectual property issues until November 10, 2026. The existing exemptions were originally set to expire on November 29 of this year.

(2) National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): From January to October, the total profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size nationwide reached 5,950.29 billion yuan, up 1.9% YoY. In October, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size decreased by 5.5% YoY.

Spot Market:

On November 27, the SMM #1 refined nickel price was 116,500-121,500 yuan/mt, with an average price of 119,000 yuan/mt, down 850 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 4,500-4,800 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 4,650 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The spot premiums/discounts quotation range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -100-300 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2601) opened lower and was in the doldrums during the night session, closing down 0.35%. The price continued to fluctuate rangebound during the morning session on the 27th, and as of the midday close, it was reported at 116,800 yuan/mt, down 0.61%.

Both US Fed Governor Waller and San Francisco Fed President Daly sent dovish signals, expressing concerns about the labour market and supporting an interest rate cut in December. This has significantly increased market expectations for a US Fed rate cut in December to a probability of 70%-75%. The direct phone call between the leaders of China and the US and the release of goodwill signals helped boost market confidence. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with long-term pressure remaining. The price range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to be 114,000-118,000 yuan/mt.